According to a recent study conducted by the European Union for Transport and Environment (AISB), more than two-thirds of lithium-ion battery production factories in Europe will face the risk of delays, reductions, or cancellations, mainly due to the adverse impact of the US passed Inflation Reduction Act on the European market.
Research has found that approximately 68% of battery production factories planned for construction in Europe face these risks. As companies investing and operating in the United States consider utilizing the incentives provided by the Inflation Reduction Act, which came into effect on January 1st of this year, a significant portion of the European market may be seized by the United States.
In the plan to reach 1.8TWh of lithium-ion battery production capacity by 2030, this research report identifies 16% of production capacity (288GWh) as "high-risk", 52% of production capacity (936GWh) as medium risk, and the remaining 32% of production capacity (576MWh) as low risk.
The following figure shows the risk classification of EU countries planning to build battery factories.
The company stated that the high-risk projects are those that have not yet obtained financing or permits, have not yet started construction, have not yet obtained a purchaser, and in some cases have not yet selected battery chemical composition for super factories, as these projects may be completely cancelled. The study states that the simplicity, quantity, and financing of production credit available for the battery, module, and component manufacturing industry, as well as metal processing, make the United States an attractive destination for battery factory construction.
”The research report points out that the most likely to be affected are Tesla's super factory in Berlin and Northvolt's Italvolt battery production factory near Turin. Northvolt Corporation stated that due to high energy prices at the end of last year, there is a risk of delay in the construction of the Deloitte Superfactory in Heidelberg, Germany.
Source: